The South African government is forecast to be hit by a tax revenue shortfall of almost R43 billion for the tax year ending next month, Finance Minister Tito Mboweni indicated in his budget speech on Wednesday.
There were pronounced risks to the local economic outlook with the main risk of concern being power utility Eskom and its financial woes, the 2019 budget review report indicated.
The report indicated that government tax revenue for the 2019 fiscal year would come in at R43 billion under the target set at the 2018 budget speech.
“There are pronounced risks to the economic outlook. The main risk of concern is Eskom. Failure to fully implement the reconfiguration of Eskom could lead to a negative market reaction that would prompt capital outlflows, with greater pressure on the rand. It would also perpetuate weak investor confidence and reduce economic growth,” the report said.
In the worst case scenario, National Treasury is forecasting negative 1% growth this year while its best-case scenario is just over 2% growth.
Mboweni cut the National Treasury’s forecast for economic growth for this year from 1.7% to 1.5% due to “fragile recovery in employment and investment, and a less supportive global trade environment”.
By 2021, the National Treasury’s best-case scenario is growth of 3% and its worst-case scenario is 1%.
“The economic and revenue outlook has deteriorated since the October 2018 medium-term budgetary policy statement and funding pressures from state-owned companies have increased,” the medium-term budgetary policy statement said.
“Several other state-owned companies are also in financial distress and have requested government support. As a result, the contingency reserve has been revised up by R6 billion in 2019/20 and any funding provided will be offset by the sale of non-core assets. Additional reforms to strengthen the governance, finances and operations of state-owned companies will be announced in the months ahead,” the 2019 budget review report said.
State companies that are looking for bailouts include the South African Broadcasting Corporation (SABC) and Denel.
“Several state-owned companies face negative cash flows and are financing operations from debt, which has become increasingly difficult to raise. This moves them perilously close to default unless they receive some form of recapitalisation.”
In another worrying sign, debt owed to municipalities is increasing. At the end of March, debt owed to municipalities is forecast to climb to almost R159 billion from almost R99 billion at the end of March 2015.
Of debts owed by municipalities that are more than 90 days in arrears, Eskom is the major creditor – it is owed R12.8 billion – followed by water boards with R6.4 billion.
“From July 2018 to June 2019 municipal financial year, 113 municipal councils adopted unfunded budgets, up from 83 the prior year.”
The government is expecting to issue $2 billion (about R28 billion) in debt by the end of the 2019 fiscal year.
Over the next three years, the government will raise an additional $8 billion (about R114 billion) in global capital markets.
“This year’s budget underlines the National Treasury’s continued commitment to these requirements in a difficult environment in which economic growth remains weak, public debt and debt-service costs have accelerated and governance and operational concerns are manifest across the public sector,” the review report said.
“Weak economic performance and residual problems in tax administration have resulted in large revenue shortfalls,” the report said.
“The deteriorating financial position of state-owned companies has put additional pressure on the public finances,” the report added.
“The government’s efforts to reform state-owned companies and the launch of the infrastructure fund are expected to increase growth and investment in the year ahead,” the 2019 budget review report said.
For the 2020 fiscal year, consolidated government expenditure is forecast to R1.83 trillion.
Nigeria’s inflation dropped by 0.07 percent in January 2019, the National Bureau of Statistics reports.
According to the NBS, the consumer price index, (CPI) which measured inflation increased by 11.37 percent (year-on-year) in January 2019.
“This is 0.07 percent points lower than the rate recorded in December 2018 (11.44) percent. Increases were recorded in all COICOP divisions that yielded the Headline index,” it said.
On month-on-month basis, the NBS said the Headline index increased by 0.74 percent in January 2019, same rate as was recorded in December 2018 (0.74) percent.
“The percentage change in the average composite CPI for the twelve months period ending January 2019 over the average of the CPI for the previous twelve months period was 11.80 percent, showing 0.3 percent point from 12.10 percent recorded in December 2018.
“The urban inflation rate increased by 11.66 percent (year-on-year) in January 2019 from 11.73 percent recorded in December 2018, while the rural inflation rate increased by 11.11 percent in January 2019 from 11.18 percent in December 2018,” it added.
President Muhammadu Buhari has boasted about the economic policies of his administration, saying they are meeting the desired target.
The president stated this in Lagos on Saturday in a meeting with the Lagos business community, adding that the impact of the policies can be seen in the gradual growth of the nation’s economy in the last three years
According to President Buhari, he had kept his promise to boost the economy, through blocking leakages in government finances, increasing capital expenditure and inflows, and implementing the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP), among others.
‘‘I firmly believe that our economic policies are beginning to make the desired impact. Economic growth has resumed and is continuing to improve.
‘‘Growth was higher in 2017 than in 2016, data even from external sources shows that it will be higher in 2018 than in 2017. I am confident that as we stay the course, it will be better still at the end of 2019.
‘‘Inflation is coming down steadily, there is stability in the exchange rate and foreign exchange is readily available for genuine business. Foreign reserves are adequate and growing; capital inflows have increased and the trade balance is positive.
‘‘We are paying off debts that were not even publicly acknowledged before now, including those owed to States, the electricity sector, oil marketers, exporters, backlog of salaries of workers and pensioners, amongst others.
‘‘I am happy that the results of the priority we have placed on this sector are beginning to show.
‘‘Our commitment is reflected in the resources that we are providing for infrastructure. In 2016 and 2017, capital expenditure was up to N2.7 trillion while over N800m has been released under the current budget.
‘‘This has been complemented by the inception of the $650 million Presidential Infrastructure Development Fund which will focus initially on the Lagos-Ibadan expressway, the Second Niger Bridge, the Abuja-Kano expressway and the Mambilla hydropower plant,’’ he said.
The President also highlighted completed and ongoing projects in the transport and aviation sector, expressing delight that the rail projects are generating excitement across the country because it would help local businesses to grow.
‘‘The Abuja-Kaduna railway is up and running. The Itakpe-Warri line is being test-run before going commercial. The completed portion of the Abuja light rail project is facilitating movement to the airport.
‘‘The Lagos-Ibadan railway is nearing completion with people already taking test rides on the completed portions. We are determined to work at the same pace on the Coastal Railway Line and the line from Port Harcourt to Maiduguri.
‘‘We completed the repairs to the runway in Abuja in record time, and just a few weeks ago, I commissioned the Baro Inland Port. All these achievements will help Nigerian businesses to grow,’’ he said.
“On future plans to sustain the positive economic outlook, the President said the Federal Government would raise more revenue to boost the economic fundamentals and increase the level and quality of government services in support of the private sector.
‘‘I recently inaugurated a Technical Advisory Committee to identify new sources of revenue in this regard. This is also to ensure that Government at all levels have the resources to pay the new national wage, which we are indeed committed to paying.
‘‘Our economic fundamentals are strong and, in the next four years by the grace of God, we are determined to stay the course in terms of partnerships with the private sector; support to the real sector; helping small businesses, providing infrastructure and an enabling business environment,’’ he said.
President Buhari further informed the gathering that his administration has also stimulated growth in the economy by adopting and implementing new strategies to deal with the security situation in the country and tackling rampant corruption.
President Muhammadu Buhari has announced that the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) will soon commence drilling for a deeper search for oil and gas in the Benue Trough.
This, he said, is the next step following the commencement of drilling in the Kolmani River area, located within Bauchi and Gombe States.
President Buhari, who made the announcement on Wednesday while addressing traditional rulers at the Banquet Hall, Government House, Makurdi, Benue State, recalled that as Minister of Petroleum in the 70s, he had seen “very interesting seismic surveys” that promised oil and gas from the Chad Basin through the Benue Trough down to the Delta region.
He said for mostly commercial reasons, investment was directed to the Niger Delta given the promise of quicker results.
He narrated past efforts by him as Military Head of State to diversify the country’s sources of oil to strengthen its unity, promising that his administration will intensify efforts in this direction.
President Buhari welcomed the observation by the Tor Tiv, His Royal Majesty, Professor James Ayatse, that peace had been restored to Benue State following the spike, sometimes back in farmers and herders’ clashes as well as the fact that the President had so far conducted a decent and peaceful campaign.
The President promised to look at requests for more roads, bridges and tertiary institutions made by the royal father.
Earlier, the Tor Tiv had expressed appreciation to President Buhari, “for the way and manner you have conducted peaceful campaign, no riots, no violence, setting good example. We had a challenging time in 2016. Thanks for your intervention, for accepting our appeal to step up security. Operation Whirl Strike has succeeded in chasing away violent herders.”
The Governor of Benue State, Samuel Ortom in his remarks, called for free and fair elections, urging all contestants to abide by the outcome.
China's economy grew at its slowest rate since 1990, stoking fears about the impact on the global economy.
China expanded at 6.6% in 2018, official figures out Monday showed.
In the three months to December, the economy grew 6.4% from a year earlier, down from 6.5% in the previous quarter.
The data was in line with forecasts but underlines recent concern about weakening growth in the world's second-biggest economy.
China's rate of expansion has raised worries about the potential knock-on effect on the global economy. The trade war with the US has added to the gloomy outlook.
The official figures out Monday showed the weakest quarterly growth rate since the global financial crisis.
China's economic slowdown is not news in itself. Beijing has broadcast this for several years, that it's going to focus on the quality not quantity of growth.
But still, we should be worried.
Slower growth in China means slower growth for the rest of the world.
It accounts for one-third of global growth. Jobs, exports, commodity producing nations - we all depend on China to buy stuff from us.
Slower growth in China also means it is harder for China to address its mountain of debt, even with the Communist Party's undoubted ability to be able to support the economy.
Growth has been easing for years, but concern over the pace of the slowdown in China has risen in recent months as companies sound the alarm over the crucial market.
Earlier this month Apple warned weakness in China would hit its sales.
Carmakers and other firms have spoken out on the impact of the trade war with the US.
Policymakers in China have stepped up efforts in recent months to support the economy.
Those measures to boost demand include speeding-up construction projects, cutting some taxes, and reducing the level of reserves banks need to hold.
Capital Economics China economist Julian Evans-Pritchard said the Chinese economy remained weak at the end of 2018 "but held up better than many feared".
"Still, with the headwinds from cooling global growth and the lagged impact of slower credit growth set to intensify... China's economy is likely to weaken further before growth stabilises in the second half of the year."
The World Bank has predicted that Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Growth, GDP, will expand by 2.2 percent in 2019.
The World Bank made the prediction in its annual Global Economic Prospects published on Wednesday.
The prediction slightly upgraded the country’s projected growth rate from 2.1 per cent in June 2018.
According to the World Bank, growth in sub-Saharan Africa would accelerate to 3.4 per cent in 2019, due to improved investment in large economies together with continued robust growth in non-resource intensive countries.
“Per capita growth is forecast to remain well below the long-term average in many countries, yielding little progress in poverty reduction.
“Growth in Nigeria is expected to rise to 2.2 per cent in 2019, assuming that oil production will recover and a slow improvement in private demand will constrain growth in the non-oil industrial sector.
“Angola is forecast to grow 2.9 per cent in 2019 as the oil sector recovers as new oil fields come on stream and as reforms bolster the business environment.
“South Africa is projected to accelerate modestly to a 1.3 per cent pace, amid constraints on domestic demand and limited government spending,” the bank said.
The World Bank report, while dwelling on the risk to the region’s growth, said escalated trade tensions between the United States and China could impact negatively on the region.
“Faster than expected normalisation of advanced economy monetary policy could result in sharp reductions in capital inflows, higher financing costs and abrupt exchange-rate depreciation.
“Increased reliance on foreign currency borrowing has heightened refinancing and interest rate risk in debtor countries,” the noted.
The report further stated that domestic risks remained elevated and that political uncertainty and a concurrent weakening of economic reforms could continue to weigh on the economic outlook in many countries.
“In countries like Mozambique, Nigeria, and South Africa holding elections in 2019, domestic political considerations could undermine the commitments needed to rein in fiscal deficits, especially where public debt levels are high and rising.
Market capitalization at the Nigerian Stock Exchange (NSE) dropped by N100.2 billion on Thursday as stocks of banks and industrial companies listed on the Exchange recorded losses.
The market capitalization which opened on Thursday after a two-day break at N11.676 trillion, closed at N11.576 trillion, a difference of N100.2 billion, while the All Share Index dropped by 0.9 per cent to 31,692.63 basis points, and the year-to-date loss worsened to -17.1 per cent.
Analysts are of the opinion that the negative market performance was dragged by losses recorded in FBN Holdings Plc, Dangote Cement Plc and Access Bank Plc.
Activity level at the exchange fell as volume and value declined by 36.7 per cent and 49.8 per cent to 452.260 million units and N2.608bn, respectively.
The top traded stocks by volume were Medview Airline Plc (146.9 million units), NEM Insurance Plc (45.9million units) and Transcorp Hotels Plc (37.5 million units), while Zenith Bank Plc (N646.2m), Guaranty Trust Bank Plc (N345.6m) and MEDVIEW AIRline (293.9m) were the top traded stocks by value.
The losses not withstanding, performance across sectors was largely positive as three of five indices closed higher.
The Oil & Gas index yielded the most, with a 1.3 per cent gain due to price appreciations recorded in Forte Oil Plc and Conoil Plc while the Banking index gained 0.2 per cent on the back of price appreciations in Diamond Bank Plc, First City Monument Bank Plc and GTB.
The Consumer Goods index increased by 0.04 per cent as a result of the gains recorded in Nigerian Breweries Plc and Nascon Allied Industries Plc.
However, sell pressures in Dangote Cement, NEM Insurance and Niger Insurance dragged the industrial and insurance indices lower by 2.11 per cent and 0.69 per cent, respectively.
Investor sentiment strengthened as market breadth declined to 1.9x against 7.2x in the previous session, which was as a result of the 30 gainers that emerged against 16 decliners at the end of trading on Thursday.
The top performers were NPF Microfinance Bank Plc, Mutual Benefits Assurance Plc and Conoil Plc, whose respective share prices gained 10 per cent, 10 per cent and 10 per cent.
The top losers were UACN Property Development Company Plc, NEM Insurance and Niger Insurance, which saw their share prices decline by10 per cent, 9.2 per cent and 8.3 per cent, respectively.
Nigeria’s President, Muhammadu Buhari on Saturday lamented that despite successes recorded by the Economic Community of West African State, ECOWAS, the body is still faced difficulties in the economic, governance, peace, security and humanitarian fields.
Buhari, who is the current Chairman of ECOWAS spoke while declaring open the 54th Ordinary Session of the Authority of Heads of State and Government of the ECOWAS in Abuja, Nigeria.
According to him, the regional organisation was still confronted by several challenges that must be tackled, observing that the lofty ideals of ECOWAS, including the promotion of cooperation and integration, leading to the establishment of an Economic and Monetary Union in West Africa as well as the creation of a borderless peaceful, prosperous and cohesive region, would be unattainable without peace and security.
He said this was why he decided to make the issue of peace and security the major focus of his chairmanship.
Buhari noted that his efforts had started yielding dividends as the organisation had been able to douse tension and restore confidence in some potentially disruptive situations, particularly in Guinea Bissau, Togo and Mali.
On the forthcoming national elections in Nigeria and Senegal in 2019, the Nigerian leader said he had already pledged to conduct free, fair and credible elections.
“In the same vein, the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), security agencies and other political stakeholders, have expressed their unwavering commitment to the conduct of peaceful elections devoid of violence, rancour and acrimony, in the higher interest of the nation,’’ he added.
But he noted with concern that terrorism and violent extremism had continued to threaten peace and security in the sub-region.
The president said: “This threat calls for collective action on our part, if we are to effectively and definitively eliminate it.
“As we work on new strategies to combat and eradicate this menace, we require the support of our partners to ensure the achievement of our objectives.’’
Buhari, however, commended leaders of ECOWAS for their efforts in promoting peace, stability and development in the sub-region.
The president particularly paid special tribute to President Nana Akuffo-Addo of Ghana, President Alpha Conde of Republic of Guinea and ECOWAS facilitators in the resolution of the Togolese political crisis, for their tireless endeavours towards a peaceful settlement.
“I’m also glad for the significant progress made through our collective efforts towards the resolution of the political and institutional crisis in Guinea Bissau.
“Within the framework of our regional solidarity, we have assisted the governments of Togo and Mali in tackling political and security problems while also addressing food challenges in parts of the sub-region.
“We have also extended electoral support and assistance to several countries and acted pro-actively to neutralise some potential conflicts through preventive diplomacy before they exploded. In this connection, we welcome the successful elections held in Sierra Leone and Mali in 2018,’’ he said.
The Nigerian leader further stated that the organisation’s determination to create a safe and stable sub-region must be predicated on a strong and capable ECOWAS, adding that no institution can function effectively without adequate funding.
“This would require that all hands are on deck and that all Member States ensure the payment of the Statutory Community Levy as and as when due.
“By so doing, we will empower and enable the Commission to implement the Integration Agenda, as we march towards the year 2020, and actualise our vision of building an ECOWAS of Peoples and not of States,’’ he said.
He also stressed the need for member states to join forces to eliminate those factors that were militating against a secure, conducive and prosperous environment for the benefit of the people in the sub-region.
The president noted that such actions would enable them (Member States) address the continuing fragility of the sub-region’s economies linked closely to commodity prices, nascent democracies, negative effects of climate change on farming systems and the globalisation of crime and terrorism.
“These realities remind us of the need for even stronger intra-ECOWAS solidarity in order to address emerging challenges.
“This is indeed the very sense of our Union. To that end, important decisions are taken in the course of our meetings, with the goal of impacting transforming positively on the lives of our citizens,’’ he said.
Buhari disclosed that during today’s Ordinary Session, the regional leaders would be expected to take several decisions on a number of issues.
He said: “As is our custom, our Session would consider these matters from the reports on today’s agenda as follows: the 2018 Annual Report of ECOWAS ; the Report of the 81st Ordinary Session of the Council of Ministers and the Report of the 41st Ordinary Session of the Mediation and Security Council.’’
Other matters to be deliberated upon, he said, included the Reports on the Political and Security Situation of the Region, and the Report on the Process for the Establishment of the ECOWAS Single Currency.
The Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of the United Nations Office for West Africa and the Sahel (UNOWAS), Mohamed Ibn-Chambas, noted that in the past months the sub-region had been witnessing the successful conduct of elections, contributing to the progress the sub-region was making in the consolidation of democracy.
Ibn-Chambas, who spoke in both English and French languages, however, stressed the need for more efforts to be made to address contentious issues related to conduct of elections to prevent and mitigate election-related violence, human rights abuses and promote respect for the rule of law.
“Upcoming elections in the sub region will present opportunities for further consolidating democracy.
“UNOWAS is coordinating efforts with the ECOWAS Commission to ensure appropriate support to these countries in their efforts to organise free, credible and peaceful elections,’’ he said.
The News Agency of Nigeria (NAN) observed that Morocco is not on the agenda of the 54th Ordinary Session of the ECOWAS of Heads of State and Government.
Morocco had made its request to be a member of ECOWAS while Tunisia requested to be an observer country.
NAN also reports that former Nigerian military Head of State, retired Gen. Yakubu Gowon, was among the dignitaries attending the summit.
The National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, has said that the nation’s Gross Domestic Product, GDP, grew to 1.81 percent (year-on-year) in real terms in the third quarter of 2018 compared to the 1.50 in the second quarter of the same year.
This, the NBS said in a report released on Monday, was aided by the non-oil sector of the economy.
According to the report, in nominal terms, aggregate GDP stood at N33.36 trillion while real GDP was estimated at N18.08 trillion.
Growth in Q3 was largely helped by the non-oil sector, which contributed 90.62 per cent to total GDP while the oil sector contributed 9.38 per cent to growth in the review period.
However, Oil GDP contracted by -2.91 per cent compared to -3.95 per cent in Q2 and 23.93 per cent in Q3 2017.
The report also showed that average daily oil production fell to 1.94 million barrels per day (mbpd), higher than that of the 1.84mbpd recorded in Q2 by 0.10 mbpd- but lower than the 2.02 mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2017 by -0.08mbpd.
The report further showed that real growth of the oil sector was –2.91 per cent (year-on-year) in Q3, indicating a decrease of –25.94 percentage points relative to rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2017.
The non-oil sector however grew by 2.32 per cent in real terms in Q3, representing 0.28 percentage points higher than the 2.05 per cent in preceding quarter and by 3.08 percentage points higher compared to the -0.76 per cent recorded same quarter of 2017.
The NBS report said the non-oil sector was mainly driven by Information and communication sector while other drivers include agriculture, manufacturing, trade, transportation and storage and professional, scientific and technical services.
For the sectoral contribution of GDP growth in the period under review, The NBS report showed that information and communication sector contributed 10.55 per cent to real GDP while agriculture 29.25 per cent to real GDP.
Manufacturing contributed 8.84 per cent to growth while services accounted for 48.79 per cent as well as industries which contributed 21.97 percent to real growth.
Also, trade contributed 15.80 per cent to real GDP while finance and insurance 2.52 per cent to growth as well as construction which recorded 3.01 per cent to GDP.
Market capitalization on the Nigeria Stock Exchange shed N39.89bn on Wednesday as the gains recorded in the previous session were pared.
The market capitalisation, which stood at N11.255tn on Tuesday, dropped to N11.215tn on Wednesday, while the All Share Index declined by 0.35 per cent to settle at 30,704.98 basis points.
Major benchmarks closed in the red at the end of trading on the floor of the Exchange on Wednesday.
The NSE Oil/Gas Index slid by 2.99 per cent, emerging the biggest loser as sinking oil prices hit energy companies.
Sell pressures were witnessed in Seplat Petroleum Development Company Plc and Total Nigeria Plc.
The NSE Industrial Index was the second biggest loser, with a 1.14 per cent loss due to sell-offs in Dangote Cement Plc.
Similarly, the NSE Banking Index depreciated by 0.21 per cent on the back of major losses witnessed in Guaranty Trust Bank Plc and Zenith Bank Plc.
The NSE Consumer Goods Index was however the highest gainer, with a 1.18 per cent gain as major stocks such as Nestlé Nigeria Plc and Nigerian Breweries Plc recorded price appreciation.
The NSE Insurance Index trailed, gaining a meagre 0.23 per cent on the back of gains recorded in Lasaco Assurance Plc and Wapic Insurance Plc.
The volume and value traded weakened by 36.4 per cent and 19.5 per cent to 200.997 million units and N4.098bn, respectively.
Top traded stocks by volume were Zenith Bank (51.895 million units), Lafarge Africa Plc (38.652 million units) and FBN Holdings Plc (15.852 million units), while Zenith Bank (N1.2bn), Dangote Cement (N502.7m) and Lafarge Africa (N457.3m) were the top traded stocks by value.
Investor sentiment took a further dip to 1.3x from 1.8x recorded on Tuesday as the year-to-date loss dipped to -19.7 per cent.
There were twenty-three gainers and 18 lossers at the end of trading on Wednesday.
Forte Oil, which was the second highest gainer on Tuesday, advanced to top the list as the highest gainer on Wednesday, with a 9.85 per cent increase to N26.20 per share.
Diamond Bank Plc’s share price appreciated further, gaining 9.65 per cent as it closed at N1.25.
Access Bank Plc reversed the losses it made on Tuesday as it emerged the 12th highest gainer, with a 2.60 per cent increase to close at N7.90 per share.
Five other banks ― Unity Bank Plc, Wema Bank Plc, United Bank for Africa Plc, FBN Holdings Plc and Stanbic IBTC Holdings Plc ― were on the gainers’ list, despite the 0.21 per cent decline recorded in the banking index.
Abbey Mortgage Bank Plc was the biggest loser, with a 7.55 per cent share price depreciation.
Abbey Mortgage Bank, Seplat, Jaiz Bank Plc, Japaul Oil & Maritime Services Plc and Julius Berger Nigeria Plc, were the top five losers.
They recorded price depreciation of 7.55 per cent, 6.53 per cent, 6.12 per cent, 4.76 per cent and 4.29 per cent.